When Are Enrollment Projections Valid and When Aren’t They?

At last night’s forum on possibly redistricting so that all Richboro Middle School students get sent to Council Rock South (as opposed to the current system of splitting them into the two high schools by geographic location), figures were presented about future enrollments.  The Administration was using these numbers to indicate how all the students would be able to fit into the capacity at South.

Some of the numbers were based on current students enrolled at different grade levels, but others were based on added students entering the schools. These future assumptions of enrollment raise a question:

When does this Administration and Board consider future enrollment projections valid and when do they not?

At the time the 10-year master plan to renovate all the elementary and middle schools was unveiled, I questioned the logic of renovating and continuing to maintain all ten elementary schools when projected enrollment figures showed an anticipated decline of about 500 or more students. That would be more students lost than the current enrollment at several of the schools presently (four have populations below 500, with one below 400).  When I asked why this master plan didn’t even discuss the possibility of closing one of the schools should those trends bear out, I was told that these projections are uncertain and shouldn’t be used to make any determination such as potentially closing a school.

It should be noted that I wasn’t asking for the plan to specifically promise or guarantee to close a school, just that a reduction in schools would be considered as opposed to keeping all ten open if these trends bear out. After all, renovating a school is costing about $12,000,000 at this time and certainly more in a few years. Between the cost avoidance of not fixing one school, not running it afterward, and savings on administrative staff, the savings to taxpayers would be significant.  Despite my comments, the possibility of someday considering a reduction in schools did not get put into the plan.  So in that case, projected enrollments weren’t dependable.

But at last night’s meeting, selected enrollment figures were projected and used to try and show that all the students from Richboro Middle School could fit at South.  This drew some consternation from some attendees, claiming that the projections showed problems vis-à-vis the high school’s capacity.  Those concerns would be exacerbated if the projections somehow were understated.

Several members of the audience raised objections to the capacity being claimed for South, saying that the original figures when the school was built had stated a capacity of 2,000.  The Superintendent said the capacity was higher, based on an analysis done by the District’s Facilities staff, saying that with 25 students per instructional space the capacity was 2,380.  But early in the meeting, the Superintendent said “I don’t know if that’s right, 2,000, 2,380 as far as capacity.” And was based on the 2,380 capacity that the District projected that 2,219 students could fit at South in 2014-15.  But again, that projects a growth pattern projection for several years out.

So the District is used projections to plan a decision it apparently wants, but refuses to even include in the master plan the possibility of considering reducing schools at some point in the future if projections come true.  It makes one wonder what the motivation is. Shouldn’t the possibility of reducing costs (and tax increases) when/if feasible be at least documented when plans are being drawn up?